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OFFICIALS: BASIN WATER LEVELS
IN BETTER SHAPE THIS YEAR THAN LAST

The rains over the last few months have quenched the drought that parched much of Texas, including the Brazos River basin. But with summer coming in a few months some might wonder, could the state face the same conditions that in some places challenged those of the devastating drought of record in the 1950s?

While officials say they cannot forecast the weather that far into the future, one thing is clear, the water levels in the lakes and rivers of the Brazos basin are in much better shape than they were at this time last year.

By now it is old news that last summer large swaths of the basin were suffering under drought conditions that had lasted more than a year. While the conditions did not endure as long as the 1950s drought of record, when you factor in rainfall shortages and periods of high temperature, in some places the situation was just as dire.

The Gulf Coast near the mouth of the Brazos was particularly hard hit. By late summer 2009, some areas were more than 20 inches below normal rainfall.

The river flow was so low near the mouth of the Brazos that it created problems for cities, industries and agriculture near the coast that depend on fresh water. This in turn increased demand on the Authority to release water from upstream reservoirs for its customers downstream.

In Central Texas, the drought prompted the Authority to implement Stage 2 of its Drought Contingency Plan as a result of strains on Lake Georgetown, which supplies water to the cities of Georgetown and Round Rock and two other local area water utilities. At one point the lake was more than 23 feet below the top of its conservation pool.

Drought conditions were less severe in the upper basin. But Possum Kingdom and Granbury lakes felt the sting anyway as their levels dropped moderately due to the lack of inflow, intense heat, and water use.

Then came El Niño and everything changed.

The cyclical weather pattern, where the eastern Pacific Ocean waters turn warmer than normal, typically brings more winter rains to the South. This winter El Niño came back in full force.

A tropical system in September brought 10 to 15 inches of rain to parts of the basin, and periodic rains have fallen since.

“We had just a massive reversal of fortune,” said Dan Huckaby, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service’s Fort Worth office. “We had drought of record conditions in some coastal areas. Now we are looking at no drought designation anywhere in Texas, just some abnormally dry places.”

For instance, Lake Jackson near the Gulf was more than 21 inches of rain below normal for the year by the end of summer. It has since made up that deficit and as of mid-February was more than 6 inches above normal for the year thus far.

Brad Brunett, Authority senior hydrologist, says the Brazos River basin is heading into the months before summer in a much better place than this time last year.

In February 2009, the Authority’s system of lakes, including those operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, was down to about 82 percent of its storage capacity, Brunett said. None of the reservoirs were up to 100 percent of their capacity.

This February the water supply storage capacity of the system is about 97 percent full with all but two of the lakes at or above 100 percent full. Lakes Possum Kingdom and Proctor are not quite full, but their levels have been rising and they are likely to fill with the wet spring months still ahead.

“From a water supply standpoint – with how much water is in the lakes – last year’s drought is a distant memory,” Brunett said.

The impact of the El Niño rains on groundwater levels is difficult to gauge at this point because different aquifers and groundwater sources can take varying times to recover, depending on a variety of factors.

Despite the good news, it is still too early for officials to predict whether this summer will be a normal Texas scorcher or something more severe, Huckaby said. The spring at least is shaping up to receive normal rains, he said.

“The wettest part of the year is still ahead of us,” Brunett said.