Will the unusually wet conditions continue?

Our wet spring has determined if and where Texans will see a drought this summer – and it’s not within the Brazos River basin. For most of the state, no drought is expected this season. Though the summer is expected to be dry, a wetter than normal fall is predicted this year.

According to the National Weather Service Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service, above-average rainfall was seen over most of the northern, western and southeastern parts of Texas for the latter half of spring and early summer.

As a result, there have been instances of widespread, but minor river flooding. Reservoir levels around the state are also high for mid-summer because of the rain, exceeding the median value at almost 90 percent full. In contrast, reservoirs were almost 81 percent full last year.

Due to this widespread rainfall, only five percent of Texas is considered “abnormally dry,” according to the drought monitor. The National Weather Service said that number was at 31 percent just three months ago.

Currently, only about two percent of the state has moderate or worse drought conditions. This area is in southern Texas, where it is expected to be the only area that will experience drought through Sept. 2019.

“South Texas is starting off worse because their rainfall during fall through spring wasn’t nearly as unusual as what happened in the rest of the state,” said State Climatologist John Nielsen-Gammon. “This means that when a dry stretch occurs outside of South Texas, it will take longer for drought to set in because there’s an unusually large amount of subsoil moisture for plants and streams to draw from and lake levels are doing fine.”

Though it seems only a portion of the state will experience drought, that wasn’t always the case. In 2018, almost all of the Brazos River basin was experiencing some form of drought or abnormally dry conditions, but nothing compared to the extreme and severe droughts that took place between 2011 and 2014.

“Right now, all of the Brazos River basin is currently drought-free with respect to the drought monitor, that takes into consideration agricultural impacts of drought, deficits in soil moisture, deficits in rainfall,” said BRA Water Services Manager Aaron Abel. “That’s pretty significant because if you look back over about the last 10 years, the Brazos River basin at every point in time has had some portion impacted by either abnormally dry conditions or some category of drought.”

For the rest of the summer, the latest weather forecasts are calling for a warmer and wetter pattern.

“The seasonal outlooks are calling for enhanced chances of above-normal precipitation for the next several months, along with a suggestion of above-normal temperatures,” said Nielsen-Gammon.

Though a dry summer is expected, flooding caused by excessive rainfall has caused several issues for those looking to spend some time on Texas rivers and reservoirs.

“There’s been no other time in history where we’ve had more water stored in reservoirs across the entire Brazos River basin than right now, based on data compiled by the Texas Water Development Board,” said Abel.

As storms continue to pass through the state, full reservoirs and debris could pose some dangers to recreation-seekers.

Debris is still scattered in several areas of all three reservoirs, some visible but others not. Debris is still present on and under the surface. It will take time for remaining and new debris to pass through until it reaches the Gulf, so those who are on the reservoirs should be cautious.

Another weather factor that may still affect the Brazos River basin is the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially began on June 1.

The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project had anticipated below normal activity in the Gulf, but has since estimated a slight increase. The center anticipates there will be six hurricanes and 14 named storms this year.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is August to October. The season ends on Nov. 30.

For Texas, there is no such thing as a “normal” hurricane season.

“Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures favor more hurricanes, but the ongoing weak El Niño favors fewer,” said Nielsen-Gammon. “So, on the whole, there’s no expectation of anything particularly unusual. On the other hand, when you’re dealing with a segment of coastline as short as Texas, even one hurricane is unusual. There’s really no such thing as a normal hurricane season for Texas.”

Though rain has been in excess, the National Weather Service is still predicting a hot summer. From July to September, near to above normal temperatures are expected.

With this in mind, it's always important to remember to be safe when visiting Brazos River Authority reservoirs this summer.

Heat-related illnesses are common and preventable. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention said that these are the common illnesses seen and what to do if you or someone you are with is experiencing them:

• Heat Stroke
  • What to look for: High body temperature; hot, red, dry or damp skin; fast, strong pulse; headache; dizziness; nausea; confusion; passing out.
  • What to do: Call 911 immediately; move the person to a cooler place; help lower the person’s temperature with cool cloths; do not give the person anything to drink.
• Heat Exhaustion
  • What to look for: Heavy sweating; cold, pale and clammy skin; fast, weak pulse; nausea or vomiting; muscle cramps; tiredness or weakness; dizziness; headache; fainting.
  • What to do: Move to a cool place; loosen your clothes; put cool, wet cloths on your body; sip water; seek medical attention if you’re throwing up, symptoms get worse and last longer than an hour.
• Heat Cramps
  • What to look for: Heavy sweating during intense exercise; muscle pain or spasms.
  • What to do: Stop physical activity and move to a cool place; drink water or a sports drink; wait for cramps to go away before continuing with any more physical activity; seek medical attention if the cramps last longer than an hour, you’re on a low-sodium diet or have heart problems.
• Sunburn
  • What to look for: Painful, red and warm skin; blisters
  • What to do: Stay out of the sun until your sunburn heals; put cool cloths on sunburned areas; put moisturizing lotion on sunburned areas; do not break blisters.
• Heat Rash
  • What to look for: Red clusters of small blisters that look like pimples on the skin.
  • What to do: Stay in a cool, dry place; keep the rash dry; use powder to soothe the rash.